Changing gears in Davos

The Annual meeting of World Economic Forum for 2008 is in session at Davos. A lot many distinguised people from finance world, politics, manufacturing, media etc are present there to discuss the issues facing the world right now. In normal circumstances, the meeting would have focused the collaboration that's needed for the peace in Middle East, making use of the latest technologies for fighting against social and environmental issues or to discuss the prospects of Pakistan and Afghanistan. But here comes the thunderball. A lot of energy would now be spent on the US recession and its impact on the economy across the globe.

Till now people have been optimist. Yes, there is a credit crunch due to reckless lending in the subprime mortgage category, and also in property and credit cards - but we will handle it. Another perscpective was that growth is very powerful in India, China and middle east - that will wither the American storm.

But "Decoupling" is not working. The fear has crept in big time. The insatiable desire for cunsumer stuff in US (much of it made in China) is now making the growth charts go southwards. Recession gurus are saying, "we are almost there"!

Bulls have been Chained

My wife told me couple of weeks back (even before the whole gamut of things started) that this is a KAAL year! She read it that this year is not that great! Have I started believing that? Oops, let me set the context right, though I'm sure most of you guys must have sensed it by the title of this post. But still for others I'm talking about the finance market in India; in fact the whole world market. Where are markets going from here? Is 2008 really a bad year for Indian economy?

These days as soon as I reach home I switch on my idiot box (which doesn't seem to be as idiot to me as before) to listen to NDTV Profit. And the more I watch it, the more I'm getting perplexed. US market as well as Asian market is taking a bit hit. Yesterday's fearsome declarations by Vikram Pandit (CEO of Citigroup) of the huge losses and mammoth write-off's have left me more shocked. The winds of change have finally arrived and it seems the world market gonna make devastating changes. Is it a sign that India will head its way towards becoming the global power?

But right now I dont see the light at the end of this tunnel. Indian economy itself is weak right now. Prime minister with his financial advisors are meeting to find out a way to resolve the issues or rather finding a way to beat the heat. They are coming up with re-structuring the tax slabs, change in indirect taxes, etc. Mr C Rangarajan is still projecting that the growth rate will be 8.5% this year (quite hopeful). I'm sure these guys are thinking hard to make that happen.

For me, things are too scary. I've been into this market very recently and all this is making me learn a lot (well, i'm trying to hide my fear here). But I'll keep watching the market and make my moves as and when required. And surely I wish my wife makes some more predictions; of course in favor of my portfolio :-)

So whats your game plan??